Voters in Bassetlaw will not be going to the polls on Thursday 7 May. While the rest of England elects 5,066 councillors across 136 local authorities, Bassetlaw District Council is in what's officially known as a fallow year — and Notts County Council last voted in 2025. But polling published in the last few months tells a separate, sharper story: if a general election were called tomorrow, Jo White's Labour seat in Bassetlaw is currently projected to flip to Reform UK.

At a glance

  • Local elections in Bassetlaw on 7 May: None — this is a fallow year
  • Why: All 48 BDC councillors are elected together every four years; last polled May 2023
  • Notts County Council: Also not voting — last polled May 2025, next 2029
  • What IS being elected nationally: 5,066 councillors across 136 English local authorities
  • Sheffield City Council: One-third of seats up — relevant to Worksop's wider region
  • Polling projection for Bassetlaw constituency: Reform 35.95% · Labour 28.3% · Conservative 20.46% · Green 10.13% · Lib Dem 5.16%
  • Projected winner: Reform UK gain from Labour, majority 7.65%
  • Caveat: No general election is currently scheduled. Projections are model-based, not a vote.

No election here on Thursday — and why

If you've seen national news talking about results coming in overnight on Thursday into Friday, the simple answer for why you're not getting a polling card is that Bassetlaw District Council operates on a four-year cycle in which all 48 councillors are elected at the same time. The last set of district elections were in May 2023. The next will be in May 2027.

The other layer of local government, Nottinghamshire County Council, also operates on a four-year cycle and last polled in May 2025. The next county elections are due in 2029.

The result: across both layers of local government in Bassetlaw, this year is genuinely fallow. The only places nearby that are voting on Thursday are Sheffield City Council (one-third of seats up) and various parish and town councils across England. There are no Bassetlaw parish or town council polls scheduled.

The bigger story: what polling projects for Bassetlaw at the next general election

Bassetlaw is one of the so-called Red Wall seats Labour took back from the Conservatives at the July 2024 general election. Jo White won the constituency with 41.2% of the vote, a 12.9-point majority over the Conservatives. Reform UK ran third with 21.7%.

According to projections published by UK Polling Report's incumbent model (last updated 27 February 2026), if a general election were held now, the picture in Bassetlaw would look very different:

  • Reform UK projected to win with 35.95% — a gain of 14.25 points on its 2024 share
  • Labour projected to fall to 28.3% — a drop of 12.9 points
  • Conservative projected at 20.46% — down 7.84 points
  • Green projected at 10.13% — up 5.83 points
  • Liberal Democrat projected at 5.16% — up 0.76 points

That would translate to a Reform UK gain from Labour with a projected majority of 7.65 percentage points. In short: on the model's current numbers, Bassetlaw is one of the seats Reform are most likely to take from Labour at the next general election.

How seriously to take the projection

Three caveats matter here.

One: there is no general election currently scheduled. The next is not legally required until 2029, although it could be called sooner. A lot can change in three years.

Two: UK Polling Report's incumbent model is one of many forecasting approaches. It blends national polling shifts with seat-level incumbency advantages, but it is not a poll of Bassetlaw voters specifically. A constituency-specific poll — the gold standard — would be more authoritative.

Three: the projection is from late February 2026. Polling shifts. The most recent national polling shows Reform still leading, but the picture across individual seats is volatile.

That said, the trend the model is picking up is consistent with the wider polling story: Reform UK's vote share has hardened in the kind of post-industrial, ex-Labour, ex-Conservative seats that include Bassetlaw, while Labour's 2024 vote has softened.

What it means for Worksop

For now — nothing changes. Jo White remains the MP, and there is no vote on Thursday that affects her seat. But the polling does change the political backdrop to local stories we are already covering: the Doncaster Sheffield Airport vote, the Mandelson vetting controversy, and Reform UK's wider influence on regional council decisions are all unfolding in a constituency where the incumbent MP’s seat is, on current numbers, no longer safe.

We will revisit the polling in subsequent updates as new projections are published.

Source: UK Polling Report — Bassetlaw constituency forecast (incumbent model), updated 27 February 2026. 2024 general election results from the official Bassetlaw declaration. Caveats as set out in the article.